Pasar Asia di Simpang Jalan

Pekan lalu (7/2) saya diundang menjadi salah satu penanggap dalam diskusi yang diadakan oleh Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) dan Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), bertempat di markas ADBI Tokyo, wilayah Kasumigaseki.

Dari diskusi tersebut saya mencatat bahwa di tengah krisis keuangan global, ekonomi negara-negara Asia menunjukkan ketahanan yang baik. Negara-negara Asia justru mencatat pertumbuhan positif dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Pasar keuangan Asia juga terbukti memiliki daya tahan dari gejolak eksternal. Hal ini terutama didukung oleh diterapkannya berbagai kebijakan makro prudensial yang fleksibel.

Pertanyaannya adalah, bagaimana kita melakukan evaluasi pasar keuangan Asia ke depan, terutama menghadapi masih lesunya ekonomi global? Pertanyaan ini juga diajukan oleh Deputi Gubernur Bank of Japan, Kiyohiko Nishimura, saat membuka Roundtable Discussion tersebut.

OECD-ADBI Roundtable Discussion 2012 tersebut mengangkat tema “Reformasi Pasar Keuangan di Asia”, dengan mengangkat berbagai topik, mulai dari gejolak ekonomi global, isu arus modal asing (capital flow), perkembangan pasar keuangan dan modal di Asia, edukasi finansial dan perlindungan nasabah, serta risiko manajemen, regulasi, dan pengawasan sektor keuangan di Asia. Hadir dalam seminar tersebut adalah berbagai akademisi, pakar, pengamat, pengambil kebijakan, serta para pelaku pasar.

Isu yang mengemuka dalam diskusi tersebut adalah bahwa pada ujungnya ekonomi Asia tidak imun terhadap krisis global. Krisis akan merambat ke Asia melalui jalur perdagangan (trade channel), jalur keuangan (financial channel), dan deleveraging, atau pelepasan utang besar-besaran investor Eropa di Asia. Ketiga hal ini pada gilirannya akan menyebabkan tekanan bagi pasar Asia.

Selain itu, pasar keuangan Asia juga ditandai oleh beberapa kerentanan. Kerentanan pertama adalah adanya mismatch di sisi mata uang dan jatuh tempo  (maturity) pinjaman perbankan. Banyak perbankan di Asia yang masih menggunakan pinjaman jangka pendek luar negeri untuk membiayai proyek jangka panjang dalam negeri, seperti untuk membangun infrastruktur. Hal ini menimbulkan risiko yang besar pada sisi perbankan, terutama apabila terjadi gejolak nilai tukar.

Kerentanan kedua, negara-negara Asia, termasuk Jepang, fungsi intermediasinya masih didominasi oleh peranan perbankan. Meski terjadi penurunan, ketergantungan perusahaan-perusahaan di Asia pada pembiayaan perbankan masih tetap tinggi. Dengan struktur pembiayaan seperti itu, apabila terjadi gejolak di sektor keuangan, perusahaan-perusahaan akan menghadapi kesulitan pembiayaan. Hal ini juga menunjukkan masih belum berkembangnya pasar obligasi (bond) di wilayah regional Asia.

Kerentanan ketiga, masih langkanya peluang investasi di mata uang lokal negara-negara Asia. Saat ini tak dapat dipungkiri terjadi excess saving, atau kelebihan tabungan di Asia. Namun kelebihan ini tidak diinvestasikan secara  efisien dan merata ke negara-negara Asia.

Kerentanan keempat, dominannya peranan Usaha Kecil Mikro dan Menengah (UMKM) di negara-negara Asia. Permasalahannya, UMKM kerap mendapatkan dananya bukan dari lembaga keuangan atau pasar keuangan yang diawasi secara ketat oleh otoritas. Hal ini menimbulkan risiko yang tinggi pada sektor UMKM. Selain itu, sebagian besar UMKM juga belum disentuh oleh sektor keuangan. Di sini, isu financial inclusion atau upaya mengikutsertakan UMKM pada akses keuangan, menjadi penting.

Menyikapi berbagai kerentanan tersebut, roundtable discussion mencoba membahas berbagai penyelesaian termasuk respon kebijakan yang ditempuh otoritas di negara-negara Asia. Berbagai inisiatif yang dilakukan melalui kerjasama regional, seperti ASEAN+3, The Executives’ Meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Bank (EMEAP), dan Chiang Mai Initiatives (CMI) telah menunjukkan banyak kemajuan. Di tataran ASEAN+3, para otoritas kebijakan negara-negara tersebut telah meluncurkan inisiatif yang dinamakan Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI). Di bawah inisiatif ini, upaya melakukan pendalaman pasar keuangan dan perluasan sumber pembiayaan dibicarakan.

Langkah-langkah ke depan masih panjang, mencakup pula kesiapan masing-masing negara. Dalam kesempatan tersebut, Deputi Gubernur Bank Indonesia, Dr Halim Alamsyah menyampaikan beberapa concern di bidang financial education and consumer protection. Upaya melakukan pendidikan keuangan dan perlindungan nasabah menjadi penting dalam menghadapi integrasi pasar Asia.

Sementara itu, saat menjadi penanggap di sessi Asian Capital Market Integration, saya menyampaikan bahwa integrasi pasar modal dan keuangan di Asia memberi manfaat yang besar bagi masing-masing negara, terutama dalam mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan, meningkatkan kedalaman pasar keuangan, dan diversifikasi sumber pembiayaan.

Meski demikian, berbagai tantangan ke depan perlu terus diatasi bersama, mulai dari masih lebarnya gap antar negara, termasuk perbedaan di sisi standar peraturan dan infrastruktur.

Ekonomi Asia memang ditandai oleh keanekaragaman, mulai dari budaya, sosiokultural, dan tingkat pembangunan. Tapi pada ujungnya, berbagai kerjasama regional, seperti forum ASEAN+3 dan EMEAP, terutama sejak krisis Asia, telah terbukti menjaga perekonomian di negara-negara Asia memiliki ketahanan yang lebih baik. Ke depan, upaya saling menghormati dan mendasarkan pada saling pengertian antar negara, merupakan modal yang harus terus dijaga dalam setiap kerjasama regional.

Salam dari Tokyo.

 

English translation

Notes From OECD-ADBI Roundtable: Capital Market Reform in Asia

Last week (7/2) I was invited by Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) to be a discussant in session 3.1 Asian Capital Market Integration” of OECD-ADBI Roundtable in Kasumigaseki, Tokyo. OECD-ADBI Roundtable Discussion aims at providing an opportunity for experts who have a wide range of backgrounds, including policymakers, and those working in financial industries and academia, to exchange views on the development of Asian financial markets.

There are some notes that I took from the two-day discussion. First, Asian economies has proven their resilience by achieving higher growth in the past several years than other regions of the world. Asia economies also proven their resilience to external shock through the flexible introduction and implementation of a number of macro prudential measures.

Concurrently, for the past several years emerging economies have been the propelling force behind global economic growth. Among them, Asian countries have displayed particularly robust growth, driven mainly by China and India.

The question is, how should we evaluate the development of Asian financial market over the recent past? This question was also asked by Kiyohiko Nishimura, Deputy Governor of Bank of Japan, at his opening speech.

Yet, Asian economies are not immune to the sovereign debt problem in Europe. Three potential channels of contagion can be noted: first, trade links; second, financial market disturbances; and third, deleveraging by European financial institutions. Naturally, these three channels are not mutually exclusive. For instance, the longer the disturbance continues in European financial markets, the harder the hit to the balance sheets of European financial institutions, which causes European deleveraging in Asia. If this spreads to disrupt trade finance, Asian economies heavily reliant on exports would surely suffer.

On the other hand, Asian economies are facing vulnerabilities in the region. First, there still remains the double-mismatch of currency and maturity in the banking sector. When banks finance short-term money in foreign currencies, swap it to local currency, and invest in long-term domestic assets, they incur risks both in terms of currency and maturity.

Second, in the Asian region including Japan to some extent, the financial intermediation function has traditionally been served by indirect financing, mostly through banks. Although it has gradually declined in some jurisdictions in recent years, the reliance of firms on indirect financing is still structurally high. Given this financing structure, when a large negative shock hits financial institutions, nonfinancial corporations are likely to find it hard to get smooth debt financing from these financial institutions, almost regardless of these nonfinancial corporations’ financial soundness.

Third, from a wider perspective, there is still the issue of scant investment opportunities in Asian local currencies. Abundant savings in Asia have not been invested sufficiently within the region, and have thus eventually been invested outside the region, such as in bonds in the United States and developed Europe.

Fourth, meanwhile, there are some jurisdictions in Asia that rely significantly on so-called micro-finance. However, there is one caveat. The main agents of micro-finance are nonbank financial institutions that, unlike banks, are not tightly supervised by the authorities, but which, like banks, take deposits and provide credit to customers. This means that it could become a risk factor in the financial system, if the market share of loans and deposits by micro-finance agents becomes non-negligible.

How have the Asian authorities responded to these vulnerabilities? This roundtable discussion was trying to discuss policy responses from Asian economies. Many initiatives have been done, like regional cooperation ASEAN+3, The Executives’ Meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Bank (EMEAP), and Chiang Mai Initiatives (CMI). As part of process of ASEAN+3, the authorities have launched the Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI). Under these initiatives, we could hope a progress in financial market deepening and variety or alternatives for financing in Asia.

We are still facing many challenges ahead. On this opportunity, Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Dr. Halim Alamsyah presented some concerns on the issue of financial education and consumer protection that will be very crucial in Asian integrated market.

In the Asian Capital Market Integration session, I mentioned that capital market integration will have holistic benefit for countries, investor, and the people in Asia. This integration will promoting and facilitating economic growth, enhancing the depth of financial market, and also diversifying sources of financing, investor channel and investor base.

However, we are facing many challenges such as large differences in level of development, including differences in regulatory standard and fragmented infrastructure.

It is often said that Asia is the region with the widest variety of cultures, social structures, and developmental stages. In the process of deepening the mutual ties between Asian economies, improvements in market function through regional financial cooperation will provide better investment opportunities for households, firms, and financial institutions, and thus contribute to more effective resource allocation in the region. The activities of ASEAN+3 and EMEAP, particularly their resolute efforts since the Asian Financial Crisis, have proven that financial cooperation based on mutual understanding and respect will always enable us to find effective measures in any circumstances.

Thank you.